Projetos em Curso

Cofinanciado por:
Acrónimo | LEADING
Designação do projecto | Alterações do Uso do Solo e Mitigação do Aquecimento Global
Código do projecto | PTDC/CTA-MET/28914/2017
Objetivo principal | Reforçar a Investigação, o desenvolvimento tecnológico e a inovação

Região de intervenção | Alentejo

Entidade beneficiária | FCiências.ID - Associação para a Investigação e desenvolvimento de Ciências(líder), Universidade de Évora(parceiro)

Data de aprovação | 06-07-2018
Data de inicio | 01-06-2019
Data de conclusão | 31-05-2022

Custo total elegível | 239997 €
Apoio financeiro da União Europeia |
Apoio financeiro público nacional/regional | 239997 €

Objetivos, atividades e resultados esperados/atingidos

Objetivos


  • O1: Quantification of the relative contribution of LUC to the past climate evolution in Europe: downscaling global reanalyses data with regional climate models based on harmonised reconstructed land use dynamics

  • O2: Identification of robust biophysical impacts of LUC on the regional climate under different level of global warming: downscaling identical global climate simulations with WRF based on one extreme and one potential future LUC scenario

  • O3: Inter-comparison of simulated land-atmosphere interactions and their sensitivities to LUC and evaluation of model performance against multi-variable observations

  • O4: Investigating feedbacks of local scale land use dynamics on climate

  • O5:To contribute to a framework for multi-scale earth system analyses to identify optimal land use pathways including mitigation and adaptation to climate change

Atividades

The Project consists of one task of coordination and management and six scientific tasks formally organized into three Work Packages (WP): 1) Land-Use contributions to Present climate, 2) Assessing Land-Atmosphere Feedbacks in Future Climate and 3) High resolution Regional Climate: Past, Present and Future. WP1 includes tasks1 and 2. In task 1 Continental scale WRF reanalysis driven simulations with and without land use change will be performed. Both realistic and idealised land use maps with transient vegetation and idealised static vegetation maps for Europe will be used. These will be the basis of task 2 where soil humidity and planetary boundary layer and relationship with extreme weather events under different land use scenarios is the main objective. All the simulations will be evaluated and validated against an array of observational dataset and will also contribute to the CORDEX/LUCAS-compliant simulations.
WP2 comprises tasks 3 and 4. In task 3, two (an extreme and a mild) 21st century climate scenarios will drive WRF continental scale simulations with and without land uses changes. Static, transient and idealise vegetation maps will be considered. Task 4 will be dedicated to the analysis of extreme events under climate change in order to improve the understanding of the importance of biophysical impacts in the context of the atmosphere-land feedbacks at continental scale. These results will not only contribute to CORDEX/LUCAS-compliant simulations, but also to quantify impacts under 2oC warming. WP3 contains task 5 and 6. In task 5 the WRF land system model (LSM) will perform very high resolution (~2km) offline simulations. These will assess the influence of resolution and vegetation parameterization on atmosphere/land feedbacks. Task 6 will  address the climate change signal associated to a major land use change (the largest artificial water reservoir in Europe ? Alqueva) through an array of coupled  atmosphere/land high resolution simulations (

Resultados

Expected impact (EI):
EI1: Fill the scientific gap of missing robust information on biophysical feedbacks of LUC on regional climate
EI2: Identify potential biases that arise from missing land use dynamics in regional climate change projections and help to improve the simulated impacts
EI3: Support decision making on local land management by revealing the potential of LUC to attenuate negative impacts of global warming
EI4: Better constrain further strategic development of coupled land-atmosphere and regional earth system models